Imprecise probabilities in finance and economics
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چکیده
منابع مشابه
Imprecise Probabilities
Consider the uncertainty about whether it will rain in Brisbane next weekend. A weather forecaster may be able to assess a precise probability of rain, such as 0.3285 . . . , although even an expert should feel uncomfortable about specifying a probability to more than one or two decimal places. Someone who has little information about the prospects for rain may be able to make only an imprecise...
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Decisions or inferences sometimes have to made in situations where substantive information about aspects of the problem are either lacking or conflicting. This is often handled by constructing a non-informative prior by appealing to principles such as indifference, maximum entropy, invariance, or maximizing missing information. Unfortunately these priors and the resulting posteriors may depend ...
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Bayesian advocates of expected utility maximization use sets of probability distributions to represent very different ideas. Strict Bayesians insist that probability judgment is numerically determinate even though the agent can represent such judgments only in imprecise terms. According to Quasi Bayesians rational agents may make indeterminate subjective probability judgments. Both kinds of Bay...
متن کاملComputation with imprecise probabilities
An imprecise probability distribution is an instance of second-order uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about uncertainty, or uncertainty for short. Another instance is an imprecise possibility distribution. Computation with imprecise probabilities is not an academic exercise—it is a bridge to reality. In the real world, imprecise probabilities are the norm rather than exception. In large measur...
متن کاملReasoning with imprecise probabilities
This special issue contains a selection of articles from the First International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities (ISIPTA). The symposium took place in Ghent, Belgium, during the month of June of 1999, under the organization of Gert de Cooman, Peter Walley, Sera®n Moral and Fabio Cozman. The success of the symposium led to the decision to hold a second one, to happen in Cornell, USA, in 200...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
سال: 2008
ISSN: 0888-613X
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2007.09.001